Demand remains strong in all commercial property sectors in UK

rics_logo-300x150Commercial property prices in the UK continue to rise as demand remains strong in all sectors according to the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).

UK Commercial Property is still seen as a safe haven for investors with rents and capital values set to continue rising despite macro concerns, the survey says.

With businesses across the UK thriving and employment data still strong, the industrial sector has the greatest momentum in occupier demand.

Some 43% more chartered surveyors are seeing a rise in demand for industrial space in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to 29% more seeing a rise rather than fall in demand for offices and 26% more seeing a rise in demand for retail.

As demand increases, supply has continued to decrease across the UK with the survey recording the eleventh consecutive quarterly drop in available space across the commercial property market.

The survey report also says that development nationally has only increased marginally with anecdotal evidence suggesting that there is a lack of commercial construction activity in many locations.

It also explains that a deepening skills crisis is playing a key role in inhibiting development. One notable exception to the low level of new build across the UK is in the London office sector, where development has risen sharply over the last three quarters and 34% more surveyors saw a rise rather than fall in office development starts in the quarter.

In the face of continued demand and lack of supply, rent expectations for the next quarter are strongly positive across all sectors with 35% more chartered surveyors projecting a rise in rents across all sectors.

Industrial space was again the strongest performer with 43% more surveyors envisaging a further rise rather than fall in rents.

Looking at the investment market, buyer enquiries have risen in each sector albeit less than previously and the upward trend in foreign buyers has noticeably flattened. Notwithstanding this, capital values are forecast to rise further in all sectors of the market in both the near and longer term with prime office and industrial sectors most likely to outperform.

Looking further forward, all sector rents are set to continue to rise both in the medium and longer term. Over the next 12 months, respondents are most confident of seeing rental increases in the prime industrial market with 87% more respondents foreseeing a rise as opposed to a fall.

At the other end of the scale, secondary retail space exhibits the most modest reading on a sectoral comparison, but still posted a relatively healthy balance of +51% expecting rents to grow.

Regionally price expectations are positive across the UK, with the strongest performers expected to be London and the East, however, 81% of respondents in the capital now view commercial real estate in central London to be overpriced, slightly up on the 77% who took this view in the third quarter survey.

The report also points out that there is a lack of incentives available. The value of incentive packages on offer from landlords to tenants fell across each sector in the final quarter of 2015 a trend in place for much of the past two years.

Source: Property Wire


Commercial property debt in UK set to fall to 10 year low

Picture1Outstanding commercial property debt in the UK is on course to fall to a 10 year low during 2015, declining by 1% in the first half of 2015 to £163.7 billion, according to a new report.

However, strong levels of new loan origination in 2015 mean that the total amount outstanding may actually increase for the first time since the recession, the report from academics at De Montfort University also says.

The half year edition of the De Montfort Commercial Property Lending Report, the most comprehensive study of the UK’s commercial property lending market, concludes that the continuous decline in total real estate debt since 2008 appears to have almost halted and may subsequently be reversed by the end of the year.

The value of new loan originations in the first half of 2015 was £24.7 billion, the highest half year value reported to the research since £49.2 billion recorded for the first half of 2007. In a further sign of commercial property market health, the value of distressed loans fell from £23.2 billion at the end of 2014 to £15.7 billion by the middle of 2015.

The report also show that the proportion of loans with a loan to value (LTV) ratio of less than 70% has continued to grow in the first half of 2015, representing 80.5%, or £135.5 billion of outstanding debt of the traditional lenders and allocated to investment projects.

Outstanding debt with a LTV ratio of between 71% and 100% fell from 14.3% of the total of £20 billion at the end of 2014 to 12% or £16 billon by the middle of 2015.

The first half of the year also showed an encouraging pick-up in development finance, particularly for speculative or partly pre-let projects, where more non-traditional lenders now feel comfortable providing finance against such schemes.

At the same time, the research suggests that banking regulation may be having an adverse impact on development finance by the traditional lenders. At the middle of 2015, only 2.8% of debt was allocated to commercial development projects by these lenders.

Interest rate margins for senior debt continued their three-year long decline but the pace of decline has moderated considerably. By the middle of 2015, the average margin for senior loans secured by prime office property was recorded at 214bps, down from 218.7bps recorded at the end of 2014. The report suggests that that the floor in interest-rate margins may have been reached.

Following a surge in non-traditional lenders in 2014, Banks and Building Societies remained the dominant lenders in the market, holding 76% of all loan originations at the middle year point compared to 75% at the end of 2014. The level of new lending by UK Banks and Building Societies remained stable at 39% of all loan originations.

‘We seem to have reached a turning point in the amount of commercial property debt in the market, with the impact of post-crisis deleveraging almost totally cancelled out by new lending,’ said Ion Fletcher, director of policy (finance) at the British Property Federation.

‘While this suggests things are hotting up, a stabilising of senior debt margins and broadly level LTV ratios indicates lenders remain risk conscious. We are also encouraged to see increased lending to speculative commercial property development projects. These are crucial if we want SMEs to have room to grow their businesses,’ he added.

Source: Property Wire